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Prediction for CME (2024-05-08T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-08T22:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30640/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Full halo CME with a bulk portion visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap in STEREO A COR2 lasting from 2024-05-08T19:53Z to 2024-05-09T01:53Z. The source is a large eruption and accompanying X1.0 and M9.8 flares from Active Region 13664 (S20W17) staring around 2024-05-08T21:08Z. Two rising loops are seen from Active Region 13664 (S20W17) staring around 2024-05-08T21:29Z and 22:08Z, respectively, as seen in SDO AIA 193/131, which likely resulted in two leading edges which very quickly combine in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2 imagery, and thus are considered one CME. A wide EUV wave and widely opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 171/193. Possible arrival signature is characterized by an initial sheath/compression of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 28nT. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 643 km/s at 09:32Z to 900 km/s at 11:25Z. An increase in density was observed from ~2 N/cm^3 at 09:01Z to ~26 N/cm^3 at 09:22Z, with temperature exhibiting a sharp increase starting around 09:50Z. Due to the high solar wind speed observed with this arrival, it is possible this signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T22:24Z and/or CME: 2024-05-09T09:24Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T09:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 9.0
Dst min. in nT: -412
Dst min. time: 2024-05-12T12:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T19:51Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/05/08 22:15Z
Plane of Sky 1: 04:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 06:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
POS Difference: 2:30
POS Midpoint: 05:15Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.51
Travel Time: ~6.51 * 7:00 = 45:36

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-10T19:51Z

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5
*** Estimated earliest time of arrival changing the Impact Type from 2 to 3


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/09 12:25Z

Lead Time: 37.45 hour(s)
Difference: 13.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-09T20:03Z

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